World War III, with the Middle East as the epicenter, increasingly looks like not just a possibility but a likelihood.
There are no major actors attempting to de-escalate, and the major power centers (the U.S./NATO, Russia, and China) appear to be operating on the impression that war at this time is either beneficial or necessary to maintain their geopolitical positions.
Related: How Neocons Could Sleep-Walk Us Into World War III
Up to six Chinese warships have been operating in the Middle East over the past week, according to reports.
The 44th naval escort task force has been involved in routine operations in the area since May and arrived in Kuwait for a five-day visit on Wednesday, according to the Chinese defence ministry website.
The task force left Oman’s capital Muscat on Saturday after spending several days there last week, including a joint exercise with the country’s navy, state media reported.
During the visit, Chinese commanders met Omani military officials and visited military institutions, while sailors from both countries toured each other’s shops. They also organised a basketball game, according to the state news agency Xinhua.
The task force is from the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theatre, and it includes the Zibo, a Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, the frigate Jingzhou and the integrated supply ship Qiandaohu.
There are now at least five nuclear powers that would very likely become embroiled in conflict on one side or the other if the Israel-Hamas war heats up: Great Britain, the United States, Israel, Russia, and China.
Many have, in addition, speculated about whether Iran — perhaps the wildest card of the lot, led as it is by religious fanatics — currently has nukes. In any case, it is very close and would have all of the incentive in the world to hurry along its acquisition of them if war with Israel seemed inevitable.
If conflict does erupt, as seems likelier by the day, this war will be unlike any war in human history. Never before have two — not to mention five — nuclear powers engaged in a hot war. States in possession of these devices develop them for one purpose: the threat of deploying them as a last resort if they are pressed against a wall. States are generally not in the business of allowing themselves to go out of commission voluntarily.
If Saddam Hussein had nukes before he was deposed during the Second Gulf War, he would have used them. If the Serbs or the Croats had them, it’s almost certain they would have been used in the Balkans at some point in the many years of bitter conflict there. And if Israel is engaged by Hezbollah to the north and ultimately Iran and feels itself sufficiently threatened, it will very possibly deploy them against Iran and/or Lebanon.
Such a contingency would very possibly result in retaliatory strikes either by Russia or China, followed by in-kind reactions by the United States and/or Great Britain.
All of this escalation would potentially occur in a matter of hours, if not minutes, barring any possibility of diplomatic intervention. Once unleashed, there would be no putting the nuclear genie back in the bottle.
Given the hothead warmongers currently running the United States government, not to mention the other world leaders eager for war, there is very little hope that cooler heads will prevail. As of now, all signs point to escalation. In fact, Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently intimated that one of the reasons the U.S. is stalling the Israeli invasion of Gaza is to fortify the American military posture in the region in preparation for retaliation by Iran and its proxies.
