Did Populist Rage at Big Pharma Fuel Trump Victory? Election Data Indicates Maybe

I am of the conviction that the late-breaking RFK Jr. endorsement of Trump is what put him over the edge electorally so that no amount of chicanery could overcome the MAGA/MAHA turnout.

Related: RFK Jr. Threatens War on FDA in Epic Tweet 

There are perhaps a thousand points of data to buttress this claim, including the roaring, unparalleled reception that RFK Jr. received from the Trump crowds when he appeared alongside the former and now future president.

But here’s an interesting one you’re not likely to get elsewhere: In each of the seven states below, during this election cycle, Trump beat his previous performances, sometimes by as much as five points.

What do these states have in common? 

Each has pushed through state-level legislation to expand the 340B Drug Pricing Program—the bane of Big Pharma—which prevents the industry from price-gouging consumers in low-income hospitals.

Correlation or causation? It’s difficult to tell, but the data certainly warrants consideration.

For a brief explanation of what the 340B Drug Pricing Program is and why the pharmaceutical industry might not appreciate it, we turn to Commonwealth Fund (emphasis added):

The federal 340B Drug Pricing Program allows qualifying hospitals and clinics that treat low-income and uninsured patients to buy outpatient prescription drugs at a discount of 25 percent to 50 percent. The program is intended to help safety-net health care providers stretch their financial resources to reach more financially vulnerable patients and deliver comprehensive services.

Drug manufacturers are alarmed about the program’s fast expansion, from 8,100 provider sites (including both hospitals and pharmacies) in 2000 to 50,000 by 2020. New data released in August 2022 by the Health Resources and Services Administration suggest discounted purchases under the 340B program reached $44 billion in 2021, about 16 percent more than in 2020…

In 2020, estimated discounted drug purchases through the 340B program amounted to roughly 7 percent of the total U.S. drug market. Providers argue that pharmaceutical companies are attempting to limit use of the discount drug program only to maximize their profits, which are significantly greater than those of other large public companies.

Via Modern Healthcare (emphasis added):

Drug manufacturers are rolling back their limitations on 340B drug discounts as more states pass laws aimed at making the program's benefits more accessible…

More states are expected to introduce and enact legislation aimed at protecting 340B drug discount savings amid a lack of direction from the federal government and an 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals decision that affirmed states’ authority to step in and regulate pharmacy operations, healthcare lawyers said.

Meanwhile, in Virginia, the Republican governor recently signed legislation weakening the program in the state. Either through causation or coincidence, Trump performed worse in Virginia than in 2016.

We may never know exactly the extent to which RFK Jr. is responsible for tipping the scales this election — but the impact of his endorsement certainly was not negligible.

Related: With Trump Victory, Democrat Election Denialism Commences: What to Expect

As such, Trump owes a debt to RFK Jr. and his voters that he can only repay by putting him in a position with extreme power and authority to Make America Healthy Again using every point of leverage available to the executive branch of government.