A Carrot for Putin

I make it a point never to respond in the "Comments" section of my own articles. Reason being, I feel like whatever point I had to make, I already made it in the article. The "Comments" section allows other people a chance to chime in. Whether they agree or disagree with my article, my decision not to respond is not out of disrespect. Quite the opposite. Everyone who wants to should have a voice in debating the topic at hand.

But I do enjoy reading the comments to get different points of view. Sure, there are always a few troglodytes who grunt monosyllabic utterances against the putrescent spectacle of anyone daring to voice an opinion that might differ from their own. But, by and large, it's just good, old-fashioned, reasonable, and civil debate amongst conservative Americans. And that's awesome. Because, like those delicious 5th Avenue candy bars, you just can't find it too many places anymore.

So as I perused through the comments to my article yesterday, "An Unforced Error On Ukraine?", I considered all the logical counterarguments, all of which I honestly do appreciate. One point I made in my article is that the three biggest external threats to the United States are Russia, China, and Iran. Several commenters made the point that the threat from China exceedingly dwarfs the threats, even combined, from Russia and Iran. I agree, and I should have clarified this. But since this point could prove integral to U.S.-Russia relations under Trump, I felt the subject was worth its own article.

So thank you, commenters, for the writing topic. And thank you for keeping me up until 2AM writing this.

Vladimir Putin understands perfectly well where the actual threat to his country lies. Putin isn't "afraid" of NATO, which is composed largely of EU appeasing simps who'd rather throw their own daughters to Muslim rape gangs than show a modicum of resolve to protect their own people. It wouldn't matter if NATO "expanded" to the floormat outside Putin's bedroom. He'd sleep soundly, knowing how safe he was. Trump surely knows that Putin knows this, and Trump's own disdain for NATO should assuage whatever sliver of actual concern Putin might have at one time erroneously entertained.

One of the many tragedies of Putin's attempted colonization of Ukraine is that it further weakened his broken and suffering country from the very real and ongoing colonization by China. Not that this was an idea that popped into Xi's head once the Russian tanks started rolling towards Kiev. China has been steadily working to colonize Russia for over three decades.

The ethnic Russian population of Russia's Far East has declined 20% since 1991, while the Chinese immigrant population (albeit some of it seasonal) has increased to the point that some regions enjoy less than 50% ethnic Russian inhabitancy. The Chinese government now publishes maps for official use that refer to some Russian border cities (including Vladivostok) by their original Chinese names. 

The total population of Russia's Far East, including these non-Russians, is about 8.1 million people. The total population of Manchuria, the Chinese province which borders it, is more than 107 million people. Russia's timeworn tactic of simply throwing its endless supply of young men into the front lines would be futile should China one day simple decides to annex whatever parts of the Far East it wants.

Putin has long been aware of this demographic threat. Back in 2000, speaking to inhabitants of the border town of Blagoveshchensk, he said, "If you do nothing to change the economic development of the region, your children will speak Chinese." The Russian government has taken steps to counter this influence, such as Russian language requirements for Chinese immigrants and codified preferential treatment for ethnic Russians. But this is window dressing. Not only has Putin been unable to stop the encroachment, he wouldn't dare take military action against China, even to protect legitimate Russian territory.

China has also spent over a decade slowly prying the former Soviet republics of central Asia out of Russia's orbit and into its own. Most of these countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan, owe most of their external debt to China, and many sectors of their economies are entirely dependent upon Chinese consumption. China didn't take long after Biden's unconditional surrender to illiterate zoosexuals to heavily invest in Afghan rare mineral mining, and has been building military facilities along the Afghan-Tajik border.

It is noteworthy that Xi's first announcement in 2013 of China's Belt and Road Initiative took place in Kazakhstan. In this respect, Xi understands 21st century geopolitics better than Putin. You don't need tanks and bombs to control a weak neighbor. And it doesn't matter if a place is diplomatically referred to as "Kazakhstan" or "Russian Far East," because if it's effectively controlled by China, then that's all that matters.

And lastly, Russia's main exports to China are oil and gas. Indeed, they account for over half of all Russian exports to China. Once Trump gets American energy production back up and running, those profits are going to plummet.

There are many more examples I could give. But in short, Russia's increasing dependency on, and vulnerability to, China is far more consequential to Putin than the laughable peyote dream of Belgian troops pouring across the Donbas. Again, Putin knows this, but he lacks the courage and the means to resist Chinese encroachment on not only Russia's jealously guarded spheres of influence, but upon Russia itself.

Could Trump use a Ukrainian peace deal as a means of not only pulling Russia away from China, but of maybe even establishing a Russo-American alliance of convenience? Putin can resent us decadent Westerners all he wants, but if Trump can convince him to prioritize geopolitical realities of Chinese expansionism over his chauvinistic, envious grudges against America and Europe for our crime of not being total basket case failures like Russia, things could turn in a very productive and cooperative direction for both countries.

So maybe that's the "carrot," more than any Ukrainian valley or strategic road, that Trump can dangle before Putin.

In 2018 and 2019, President Trump met with North Korea's Kim Jong-Un in an effort to establish formal relations. Jong-Un, who is extremely paranoid about leaving the Hermit Kingdom, reluctantly agreed to meet with Trump outside his home turf. Trump strategically chose Vietnam and Singapore as meeting places. 

The psychological message was clear: Vietnam is technically a "communist" country, but they opened their markets, and now the place is booming. Singapore, a city-state smaller than Pyongyang, ranks 10th in the world for mean wealth per adult. This is what North Korea could look like if you modernized your economy, granted some basic human rights, and opened your doors to the West. Capitalism is guaranteed to bring you the prosperity and security that nuclear weapons can't.

While the meetings didn't produce an immediate normalization of relations (they weren't expected to), they got things moving in the right direction, and Jong-Un seemed genuinely intrigued at the economic possibilities before him. But then, as we know, America decided to elect a drooling, meandering sock puppet, and pretty much every inch of diplomatic progress that Trump had made anywhere in the world evaporated overnight.

If Trump can successfully give Putin the Jong-Un approach (i.e., do a little ego massaging, give him public security "guarantees" that are already ground realities, etc.), and help him behind the scenes against China, Russia could conceivably evolve into a semi-reliable...well, if not ally, then at least a cordial acquaintance. For all of Russia's numerous faults, the western third of the country is, culturally and historically, more European than Asiatic. We should be natural allies against China. Putin himself should never be trusted for a second, but maybe he can be "redirected," as it were, if he felt it can help him secure his precious Potemkin empire.

And maybe one day, after Putin is gone, Russia will finally get its act together.