By the simplest definition, if you look at their fiscal and military balance sheets, Ukraine and Israel are currently failed states. Creatures of Washington funding, neither can function without massive subsidies from U.S. taxpayers. The success of President Trump's domestic agenda hinges on how he handles these two countries.
Each has ambitious military goals that will require billions more to achieve. For Ukraine, it would require a massive expenditure of blood and treasure to restore the country to its pre-war borders. It has neither the manpower nor the ability to beat back the Russian advance on its own.
Ukraine should have cut a deal long ago. It was wishful thinking to believe it would win an extended war with Russia. It needed a quick victory and quick settlement, given Russia's military ability to grind on and on, inching its way across Ukraine.
All Biden’s horses and all Biden's men couldn't put Zelensky back together again. And in a backhanded compliment to tariffs and protectionism, some economists have put Russia's economic growth last year at between 3.2% and 4.2%. In part, this is thanks to sanctions that forced the country to be more self-sufficient. It seems Biden indirectly exported Alexander Hamilton and Henry Clay's American System of protectionism to Russia. Or was it just new military production?
Likewise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a strategic blunder at the beginning of his war planning. Rather than opting for a short, swift battle and quick hostage exchange, he violated the principles of war advocated by Gen. George S. Patton and Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Their style was to think strategically and use minimal force for maximum results while putting a high priority on avoiding civilian casualties. Both adamantly opposed the bombing of civilian populations. They saw that as costly and counterproductive.
When Assistant Secretary of War John J. McCloy visited Patton at the front, the general told his old friend, "We all feel that indiscriminate bombing has no military value and is cruel and wasteful." Patton recommended that the bombers concentrate on purely military targets, not population centers. The concept that all enemy civilians were military targets was foreign to his military code of honor.
Netanyahu followed the old dictum, never let a crisis go to waste, and tried to achieve five often-conflicting objectives at once. He wanted to 1) appease the Greater Israel advocates in his government by expanding Israeli territory, 2) eliminate Hamas, the military arm of the Palestinian Arab resistance, 3) ethnically cleanse Gaza and the West Bank and incorporate them into Israel, 4) bomb Iranian military assets and cut off supplies to Israel's enemies, and 5) return the hostages.
His results are mixed. Regarding border expansion, when Netanyahu held up a map of Israel at the UN last year, he didn’t help his case. He literally wiped Palestian territory off the map he was holding. Opponents who claim he wants a land grab to obtain valuable natural gas reserves in Gaza had a field day with that. He has also taken the Golan Heights and moved Israeli forces deep into Syria, further stretching his military.
Hamas has suffered significant casualties, notably the assassination of key leaders. But new recruitment has been strong. Nothing spurs recruitment like the killing of a young man's mother, father, brother, sister, or cousins. And leaders are always replaceable by ambitious followers.
The drawback of the sledgehammer approach is the desire for revenge it engenders in an enemy. And if peace, normalcy, and a return to your home are not an option, since your home was blown up, people do desperate things.
As for the decision to bomb the infrastructure and civilian population of Gaza back into the Stone Age, it has not emptied the land of its population. Instead, it scandalized public opinion and brought charges by an international court against Netanyahu for crimes against humanity and war crimes. Not the best PR look.
The threat to make war with Iran led Russia and Iran to sign their Treaty of Cooperation last month. It is not a full military alliance, but it brings traditional enemies Russia and Iran closer. Many Russians live in Israel, so Putin has to walk a fine line. But flipping the bird to Teheran with a bombing run just got much more complicated for Netanyahu. It now has the potential to make it a U.S. vs. Russia proxy war. That said, he did derail military supply lines going through Syria when, after decades of pressure, Assad fell.
As for the return of hostages, the Biden administration said the deal was ready to be made last summer. Six months later, with bombing destroying almost all infrastructure and Gaza on a starvation diet, how many hostages can realistically be said to be alive? If that was a top war aim, it was a missed opportunity.
Will Netanyahu restart military action soon? President Trump has cut him loose on that one. He said that is an internal matter for Israel. And as for Iran, Trump seems in no hurry to break the peace on that front. He has other top priorities, including a deal for putting nuclear warhead restrictions on all countries, presumably including Israel.
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By packaging so many political, economic, and military goals into one war, Netanyahu looks more and more like a jack of all trades and master of none. And for all his pro-Israel talk, Trump has no interest in committing his administration to an ongoing quagmire that might derail his domestic agenda or upset a grand diplomatic bargain with Russia and China.
If Trump doesn’t come up with a quick fix, maybe he is just hoping Israel and Hamas will back into their corners and postpone fighting until he leaves office. This fight has been going on since 1948, and forever wars aren’t his thing. His heart is on his domestic agenda.
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