The nation is closely watching the Virginia elections today as an indication of where the country's sentiment will be going into the 2024 presidential elections. The Virginia Assembly is holding elections, with all 140 chamber members having their seats up for grabs. Similarly, all 40 of the state Senate seats are on the ballot.
Virginia is currently locked in a stalemate, with Republicans holding a narrow edge in the Assembly but Democrats having slight control over the Senate. With Governor Youngkin proposing his conservative vision for the state, it's often resulted in a deadlock against getting initiatives through.
Youngkin shocked voters in 2021 when he narrowly won the governor's race in what was once considered a solid blue state. Northern Virginia is home to a large number of Federal government workers who commute to Washington, D.C., giving Democrats the edge in many elections. Still, the rural areas typically oppose big government policies and vote Republican, splitting the state ideologically to where it has two separate identities competing for dominance.
Because Virginia has such thin margins dividing the balance of power over the next few years, analysts are looking at the state as a microcosm of the entire country's mood going into the presidential election season. A solid win for Republicans or Democrats could spell trouble for the opposing side, depending on how swing voters are looking to shape policies.
Both parties are keenly aware of this and are dumping money into these elections at historic levels for state legislature positions. Some senate races have posted more than $5 million in spending toward the campaigns.
The Democrats are banking on abortion being a hot topic for turnout, attempting to rile up their female voter base against the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022. The messaging has worked exceptionally well in other off-year elections, with Republicans often getting routed on the topic.
On the conservative side, Republicans are focusing on a message of school choice and parental involvement in curriculum, as public school teachers and unions have been increasingly pushing sexualized topics and the LGBTQ agenda on children, angering parents across the country.
Another point of interest in the election is the redistricting ordered by the Virginia Supreme Court in 2021. A bipartisan commission worked to change the districts, which made many formerly safe seats contested and led to a wave of retirements from incumbents. More than a third of these seats are going to be vacant going into the election, with no incumbency determining the outcome of these races.
More Election Day news:
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Off-Year Elections in Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, 789,848 people voted by mail as of Election Day. This marks a drop of 34% in mail-in ballots since the 2021 gubernatorial election, which indicates that turnout will be lower, and it slightly favors Republicans, since Democrats have been more likely to use mail-in ballots in recent elections.
We could see a sweep of the Virginia legislature or both parties flip control of the respective chambers, but regardless, the nation is watching these state elections with intense interest.
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