In the aftermath of any election that doesn’t go as hoped, many naturally look for something or someone to blame. I’ve already pointed out how the GOP’s abortion messaging has been a longstanding problem they need to work on, but of course, these things aren’t so simple that just one reason can explain unfavorable outcomes.
It should come as no surprise that the GOP was grossly outspent in the Kentucky gubernatorial elections, the Virginia legislature elections, and on Ohio’s abortion amendment, amongst other races.
We learned that when the GOP doesn't spend or spend wisely, people don't turn out to vote. pic.twitter.com/pQpxjdEnLc
— Jason Robertson (@JRobFromMN) November 8, 2023
Few things motivate left-wing voters more than abortion, and it’s clear that the GOP didn’t pick up on the fact that when Democrats frame an election on the issue, they have to go all in and spend more money — particularly when it comes to getting out the vote. As General Flynn noted on X/Twitter, turnout in Democrat strongholds was higher than the state average in Kentucky.
These are early stats, so subject to change (but I suspect they won’t change much).
— General Mike Flynn (@GenFlynn) November 8, 2023
This is why the GOP lost in KY:
Statewide, voter turnout around 38% turnout
Both Louisville & Lexington came in around 42% turnout, both around 70% (D) Beshear to 30% (R) Cameron
That's what…
Another person who has been getting a lot of flak on social media is GOP Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, whose record of not winning elections has come under intense scrutiny. Is it time for new leadership? I think it wouldn’t hurt.
Related: Do You Want a Silver Lining After Tuesday’s Elections? Here It Is.
There is certainly plenty of blame to go around, but one common scapegoat that many are pointing at on social is Donald Trump. I understand the desire to blame him. Many believe he’s too toxic, and he’s often blamed for the GOP’s lackluster performance in the 2022 midterms. But was he really responsible here? He handily won Kentucky in 2020; are we supposed to believe that his endorsement of Cameron contributed to Beshear’s victory?
And what about Virginia? Yes, Republicans failed to deliver on giving Youngkin a majority in the legislature, but let’s not forget that Virginia has long been acknowledged to be a blue state, and the GOP winning a majority there was always going to be a steep, uphill battle. And, as Bonchie over at our sister site RedState notes, "Republicans showed a surprising level of strength despite falling short of taking the legislature.” In fact, "Republicans won every single seat in districts rated up to Biden +9."
In Virginia tonight, Republicans won every Trump seat and single digits Biden seat.
— Political Election Projections (@tencor_7144) November 8, 2023
However, they needed 3 double digit Biden seats in the House and 1 in the Senate for a trifecta. Proved to be too tough for them and Dems narrowly win both chambers.
Clearly, Trump wasn’t the issue. Abortion may have been a factor, and as Bonchie notes, recent redistricting may have been as well. But there was a glimmer of hope for Republicans that simply destroys the notion that Trump bears any blame for the outcome there, either.
I have my concerns about Trump, but that doesn’t make it right to blame him just because of a need to find some scapegoat. The GOP’s problems with winning elections didn’t begin in the Trump era.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member