Last month, Kari Lake ended months of speculation and formally entered the U.S. Senate race in Arizona. I really wanted to be happy about it, because there was a time that polls showed (and I believed) she was viable.
Regardless of what you believe about whether there was fraud in the election in which Democrat Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Lake, her efforts to clean up elections in her state were admirable and necessary. Lake appeared committed to ensuring that commonsense election integrity measures could make Arizonans confident in the results of future elections, regardless of the result. Originally, she appeared to dismiss the idea of running for the U.S. Senate, and even encouraged Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb to run — and he is.
But, something happened along the way, and Lake decide to enter the race herself. The problem is, while she’s favored to win the GOP nomination, her chances of winning don’t look good. In fact, Lamb appears to be the GOP’s best shot at flipping the seat.
It certainly isn’t Kari Lake.
Consider this: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is one of the least popular U.S. Senators in the country, and yet Arizona voters have a worse impression of Lake than Sinema. Arizona voters have overall positive impressions of 3 of the top 4 contenders in Arizona’s Senate race. Ruben Gallego is the most liked (+19) and Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Lamb have equal net favorability (+10),” explains Noble Insights. "However, Lamb has the most room to grow with 44% of voters who have no opinion or never heard of him, compared to Sinema’s 20%. Meanwhile, Kari Lake sits at a negative net favorability. "
“With Blake Masters no longer in the mix for the Arizona Senate contest, Lake is likely to benefit the most as his 10% share of support gets distributed,” explained Mike Noble, NPI Founder & CEO. “Lake is in the driver's seat in the GOP primary contest, meanwhile, Mark Lamb needs to step up his fundraising if he wants to mount a serious challenge to Lake.”
Sinema has yet to announce whether she will run for reelection as an independent, but has recently dropped hints suggesting she will. In a hypothetical three-way match-up between Gallego, Lake, and Sinema, Gallego comes out on top +6 points. Marty Lamb performs modestly better, though Gallego still comes out on top +4 points. But, as Noble Insights points out, Lamb has the most opportunity to make any sort of gains.
Gallego’s strength is concerning, but not the sign that Arizona has flipped blue... yet. Part of what is contributing to Gallego’s strength is the fact that Sinema has significant approval from Arizona Republicans. Meanwhile, a separate Noble Insights poll shows that Trump leads Biden by eight points in a 2024 match-up.
But make no mistake about it: this race is winnable, but it looks like Lake is the not the Republicans’ best bet. Republicans have a huge opportunity to take back the Senate if they don’t screw things up by nominating bad candidates.
