I haven't felt good about Arizona in quite a while. The state has elected a Democrat governor, two Democrats to the Senate, and Joe Biden in 2020 — albeit narrowly and under suspicious circumstances. Naturally, Democrats have used these recent electoral victories to push the narrative that Arizona is trending blue, and there are plenty of reasons to believe they may actually be right.
Californians fleeing the oppressive regime of the Golden State have been flocking to Arizona, raising real questions about whether this migration is happening with liberals who will continue to vote for the policies that forced them to leave California or whether they're conservatives seeking freedom in opportunity and will continue to vote that way.
"In swing states with razor-thin margins, everything matters," Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek in October. "While we don't have a great demographic profile of what type of Californians are moving to AZ, it is definitely something to explore and message accordingly."
Now we have an idea of what's happening. The Secretary of State recently updated the statewide voter registration data, and the numbers look promising for Republicans. "The latest figures show that Republicans are once again the largest voting bloc in Arizona, surpassing Independents by nearly 40,000," explains Scot Mussi at Townhall. "This is certainly an important development — especially given all the attention it received on social media when Independent registrations surpassed Republicans last year."
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But there's a worse voter registration trend looming on the horizon for Democrats in Arizona. According to the data, Republicans now hold a 5.77% advantage over Democrats, with approximately 236,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. This doesn't sound like much, but it represents a significant increase from previous years.
In 2022, Republicans held a 4.03% advantage (about 166,000 more), and in 2020, it was 3.04% (about 130,000 more). When you do the math, it shows that Republicans have nearly doubled the percentage gap in less than four years with a substantial increase in the raw numbers. Moreover, the Republican registration advantage is now the largest in the last 10 years.
"Now, Republicans look to be positioning themselves in 2024 to look a lot more like the 2014 and 2016 elections that featured a massive red wave and the election of President Donald Trump," writes Mussi. And he may have a solid point. Donald Trump has maintained a solid and consistent lead in Arizona state polling.
GOP strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek that he believes that Californians have indeed been moving to Arizona to escape leftist policies but suggests a caveat. "The Arizona Republican Party needs to focus first and foremost on candidate quality and on selecting candidates who attract a broad swath of conservative Arizona voters. That's the best defense for what will be a continued out-migration of California voters."
This may be the reason why, despite Trump's solid polling in Arizona, Kari Lake, who is running for the Senate, has been lagging behind him. Overall, the situation in Arizona appears to be looking better for Republicans than what the media narrative has suggested.
