Make no mistake about it: the 2024 election looks nothing like the 2020 election. The candidates may be the same, but Biden has lost so much ground with the constituencies he relied upon four years ago that it's hard to see how Biden can win this time. It's not just me saying it.
Last month, CNN data analyst Harry Enten drew attention to Trump’s gains among black voters. At the time, he observed that Biden’s backing from black voters had dropped by 12%, while Trump’s had risen to 22%, and called it a significant threat to Biden’s chances for re-election. Enten added that Trump might get historic support from black voters as Biden’s approval ratings continue to fall.
“My goodness gracious,” Enten said. “This would be by far the best performance for a Republican candidate among black voters in a generation, two generations, probably since 1960 and Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy. That's how long we're really talking about when we're looking at this margin here — this could be a truly historic margin. It’s quite a troubling sign for the Biden campaign.”
And the latest New York Times poll shows just how right he was. The poll found that Donald Trump is attracting 30% of the black vote among registered voters, including leaners in a two-way matchup with Biden.
From the crosstabs of the June 2024 Times/Siena Poll of registered voters nationwide.
— Matt Margolis (@mattmargolis) June 27, 2024
Trump getting 30% support from black voters... that's devastating news for Joe Biden. pic.twitter.com/87sNcIt7Br
Even without leaners in a match-up including third-party candidates, Trump gets 22% support from black voters.
This is huge. As liberal journalist Michael Tracey notes, four years ago, the same poll showed Trump only getting 5% of the black vote.
If Trump were to receive 30% of the Black vote in 2024, it would be the largest percentage for any Republican since Nixon in 1960, who received 32% of the Black vote
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 27, 2024
While many on the left have sought to dismiss polls showing Biden losing support from black voters, multiple polls from different pollsters have all been showing the same trend.
Related: Nate Silver Drops a Truth Bomb About the Election, and the Left Won't Like It
Although Biden is expected to win the majority of the black vote, his support from this key demographic has diminished to a degree that seriously jeopardizes his re-election chances. Even Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) expressed some concern about Biden’s standing with black voters earlier this year.
Biden's efforts to regain black voters' support, especially among the younger demographic more open to Trump, have not been successful, as this new New York Times/Siena poll shows. These days, Clyburn claims that the polls are wrong. "Anybody who believes that Donald Trump will get 30% of the black male vote or 12% of the black female vote — I got a bridge down there on Johns Island I’ll sell you."
While I wouldn't bank on Donald Trump getting 30% of the black vote in November, the number of polls showing his gains among this typically Democrat-voting demographic is too large to dismiss.
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