It's no secret that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) has been running a shadow campaign for president. He's been doing everything possible to increase his national profile while simultaneously waiting in the wings for Joe Biden to drop out of the race.
After Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance Thursday night, Newsom's stock is rising again as many on the left are now thinking he's their party's savior. But he's far from it. Trust me, the Democrats aren't better off with Newsom.
People on both sides of the aisle have speculated that Newsom would be favored to win the presidency if he entered the race. But where's the evidence for this?
For starters, Newsom isn't popular, even in deep-blue California.
A recent poll from the Public Policy Institute of California reveals widespread dissatisfaction among voters with their government leaders in the state — including Newsom. Six out of ten voters believe California is on the wrong track, and Newsom's approval ratings are underwater at 44%.
That's a pretty devastating poll, considering that 47% of respondents were Democrats and only 24% were Republicans. Biden's approval rating among California adults is at 42%.
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"Overall, we find that approval of Gov. Newsom and President Biden are both at record lows," said Dean Bonner of the Public Policy Institute of California.
In fairness, just because his constituents don't like him doesn't mean that he wouldn't be viable in a national election. However, his efforts to boost his national presence haven't exactly worked out well for him. For example, his debate against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) was a setback as DeSantis decisively outperformed him.
Replacing Joe Biden at this stage would be extremely chaotic and divisive for the Democratic Party. And it seems unlikely that the party would replace Joe Biden with another white guy — especially when Biden has a woman of color as his vice president who most certainly would feel entitled to the nomination.
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Newsom has another huge problem working against him. He doesn't poll well against Trump.
"Even if Biden were to stand down — essentially the only way he will not be the Democratic Party nominee in November — the polls available suggest Newsom would lose to Trump," notes Newsweek.
A March Rasmussen Reports survey of 912 likely voters found that former President Trump would lead by 17 points (51 percent to 34) if Newsom were the 2024 Democratic nominee.
In February 2024, an Emerson College Polling survey of 1,225 showed that Trump would win in a hypothetical White House race against Newsom by 10 points (46 percent to 36).
A November 2023 Fox News poll of 1,001 registered voters found that Trump would win an election against Newsom by four points (49 percent to 45).
If Newsom is the Democrats' savior in this election, you would think there'd be at least one poll showing him beating Trump. But there isn't. Newsom might bring youth and suave to the ticket, but Americans have already decided they want Trump back.
