While election forecasters are giving Kamala Harris the edge in predictions, she has received a slew of concerning polling for her campaign. Her lead in Minnesota is way too close for comfort, and Michigan isn't looking like a sure thing, either.
Last month, Virginia looked like a close race when two polls showed a tight contest within the margin of error. A Roanoke College poll showed Harris leading Donald Trump by just three points, a finding mirrored by a Quantus poll with the same slim margin.
Virginia, a state that has reliably voted blue since 2004, was considered a potential Trump pickup before Joe Biden exited the race. Conventional wisdom suggested that with Harris at the top of the ticket, Virginia was no longer in play. However, these polls suggested that the state was still competitive. However, a subsequent Washington Post poll gave Harris an eight-point lead in the state, seemingly putting to bed the idea that Trump has a chance at winning Virginia.
That result is now looking more like an outlier. According to a new poll from the University of Mary Washington, the election in Virginia is statistically tied.
"Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) are locked in a tight presidential contest in Virginia, according to a new statewide survey from the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington," the school said in a press release.
Harris holds 47% support compared to 46% for Trump in a recent survey of 1,000 adults, which Research America Inc. conducted from Sept. 3-9 for UMW's Center for Leadership and Media Studies. Third-party and independent candidates collectively received 4% support, while the remaining respondents were undecided. When pollsters asked likely voters to choose solely between the two major party nominees, the race remained just as close, with 48% favoring Harris and 46% backing Trump — still well within the poll’s margin of error.
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“This new survey suggests Virginia should be getting a much closer look from both presidential campaigns,” explained Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington and director of UMW’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “Virginia may deserve to be treated as a ‘swing state’ once again this year.”
Farnsworth noted that recent Virginia polls have varied since Biden's exit, with some showing Harris leading beyond the margin of error and others indicating a close race.
“Given the range of findings in Virginia surveys over the past two months, the Harris and Trump campaigns may be paying far too little attention to the Commonwealth,” Farnsworth said. “Virginians have a history of bouncing back and forth between the parties.”
Is Virginia truly in play? Possibly. Should Trump invest resources there? Maybe. I would definitely wait for some more polls that show the race within the margin of error.
Still, these results raise an important question. If Virginia, Michigan, and Minnesota are all much closer than they ought to be, Trump is likely performing better in the other battlegrounds than most polls are showing.
It's food for thought.
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