How many times did we see leftist talking heads lecture the public about how things are so much better than people realize, as if we’re not smart enough to see what’s really going on? Well, this wasn’t just for the benefit of Joe Biden (and then Kamala Harris) during the presidential campaign. They’re still doing it now, even though the campaign is over.
By now, you’ve probably started preparing for the Thanksgiving holiday, and if you listen to NBC News, it’s “historically affordable” this year.
“You may not know it by looking at sticker prices in grocery aisles, but Thanksgiving dinner is more affordable than it has been in years.”
That's correct: you need not be concerned about the substantial cost of your upcoming Thanksgiving feast; it is actually more affordable this year! Just don’t believe your lying eyes and bank accounts.
The costs of this year’s holiday feast — estimated at $58.08 for a 10-person gathering, or $5.81 a head — dropped 5% since last year, the lowest level since 2021, according to a nationwide survey of grocery prices by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents millions of U.S. farmers. But the picture improves further when adjusted for inflation.
I challenge you to find anyone who is hosting 10 people and manages to keep the cost to $5.81 a head.
“If your dollar had the same overall purchasing power as a consumer in 1984... this would be the least expensive Thanksgiving meal in the 39-year history of the AFBF Thanksgiving survey, other than the outlier of 2020,” the authors of the American Farm Bureau Federation wrote.
For most Americans, it doesn’t feel like a bargain when Thanksgiving food prices are still up 19% since 2019. The AFBF argues that wage increases—up 25% in the same period—make the meal more affordable, with the average American needing “9% less work time” to pay for it. But this framing glosses over the fact that wage growth hasn’t kept pace with overall inflation. When increases elsewhere offset those savings, the claim that "some of the goods in our basket are at their long-term lowest prices" becomes hollow.
The report highlights a 6% decrease in turkey prices from the previous year, attributed to a decrease in demand. However, the situation with other staples is not as favorable. Dinner rolls and stuffing are up 8%, and fresh cranberries, though “at their lowest level since 2015,” have risen 12% this year. The report cherry-picks inflation-adjusted price drops for items like sweet potatoes and milk to paint a rosier picture, while brushing off persistent increases elsewhere.
Both Target and Aldi have rolled out Thanksgiving deals priced lower than last year. Target is offering a $20 Thanksgiving meal for four, including a small turkey, canned vegetables and stovetop stuffing mix. Aldi has a $47 meal package for 10 people, which it’s advertising as lower than its 2019 prices. Walmart is promoting an “inflation-free Thanksgiving” meal of 29 items that can serve eight people for $56. Amazon Fresh is offering Thanksgiving discounts on turkey, sides and desserts, feeding six people for less than $5 apiece, plus extra savings for Prime members.
The flurry of promotions creates plenty of opportunities to comparison shop, experts say.
“I would just advise consumers to take a look at what those meals are comprised of,” said Robin Wenzel, head of Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute. “Don’t be afraid to check out multiple retailers.”
Did you catch that? Thanksgiving is so much more affordable this year, but you really should make the effort to bargain hunt. Gotta keep your costs down to $5.81 a head somehow.
And the report is loaded with more caveats. "Ultimately, how much people pay for Thanksgiving dinner will also depend on geography," the report points out. "Households in the West, the priciest region for the holiday’s groceries, will spend about 18% more on average than those living in the South, where they’re cheapest, the AFBF estimates."
