James Carville recently shared his thoughts at Politicon, arguing that President Joe Biden’s decision to run for reelection sealed the Democrats’ fate in 2024. His analysis, though typical of Carville’s sharp, shoot-from-the-hip commentary, is just wrong, and he should know that it is wrong and know the reason why.
This election wasn’t lost because of Biden’s candidacy or timing—it was lost because Democrats have ignored the real issues fueling voter frustration.
But we’ll get to that in a minute.
In some ways, James Carville was right. He called President Biden “the most tragic figure in American politics in my lifetime,” and there is definitely some truth to that. Of course, Carville believes the reason for this is that Biden didn’t bow out of the race earlier. According to Carville, if Biden had declared in late 2023 that he wasn’t running, “God d**n, we would have won this election, and it wouldn’t have been that close.” His confidence in this alternate scenario rests on the assumption that a deep Democratic bench—“so many freaking talented people”—would have stepped up to save the day.
There is no reason to believe this would have been the case, and Carville is wrong to think a different candidate could have turned the tide for the Democratic Party. Voters weren’t primarily reacting to Biden himself; they were rejecting the consequences of the policies he and the Democratic Party pushed through in the first two years of the Biden-Harris administration, when the Democrats controlled the Oval Office, the House and the Senate—the main issue being the economy.
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The political elites may not be feeling it, but the average voter is struggling thanks to unchecked inflation, which made basic goods harder to afford. Despite claims to the contrary, wages didn’t keep pace, and families feel the financial squeeze everywhere—from the grocery store to their utility bills. The voters were always going to punish the incumbent in this election. Always.
Carville, of course, knows this. He’s the one who coined the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid.” There’s a reason why Joe Biden tried so hard to make “Bidenomics” a good thing, and there’s a reason why it didn’t work.
Carville might think that swapping Biden for someone else would have solved the Democrats’ problem, but can you think any Democrat candidate would have successfully been able to convince the public they weren’t going to double down on the failed policies of the Biden-Harris administration?
The border crisis, too, was also a key issue, especially in swing states. Democrats have consistently downplayed the scale of illegal immigration, and their refusal to address this growing concern has alienated voters. It’s not just about border communities; the effects of lax immigration enforcement ripple across the nation. Americans see overwhelmed social services, rising crime, and a lack of accountability, and they hold the Democrats responsible.
Democrats eat their own:
— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) December 6, 2024
“The most tragic figure in American politics in my lifetime is Joe Biden.” - @JamesCarville pic.twitter.com/kPKHYMRokf
These are not issues that can be blamed solely on Biden. They’re baked into the party’s policies and messaging—or lack thereof. No matter who the Democratic candidate was, the party’s failure to take these concerns seriously would have haunted them, and at this point in his career, he should know that presidential elections are always a referendum on the incumbent party.
Carville may be right about one thing: Biden has become a “tragic figure,” but not for the reasons he thinks. It’s not about Biden’s timing or the Hunter Biden scandals. If Carville really wants to understand why the Democrats lost, he should stop fantasizing about a scenario where Democrats would have been assured victory, and start acknowledging the real reasons they lost.
