Democrats taking a victory lap—clapping each other on the back for getting Joe Manchin to agree to a much-slimmed-down climate/energy/drug prices bill—are celebrating prematurely.
There’s another Democrat who needs to be persuaded to vote for the laughably named Inflation Reduction Act. Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema has to date kept quiet about whether she’ll vote for the bill or not. And the Democratic leadership is gambling on her decision.
The reconciliation process Democrats are using to pass the bill will begin in the next couple of days. It’s called the “Vote-a-Rama” phase of reconciliation, where Republicans will offer dozens of amendments to the bill, forcing votes on a wide variety of hot-button issues that have no chance of passing but will make Democrats running in November nervous about being forced to go on the record.
The problem for the Democratic Senate leadership is that going ahead without Sinema’s vote risks an extraordinary embarrassment. They’re not even sure if Sinema will vote to proceed with consideration of the bill. Schumer, Biden, and especially Joe Manchin may yet end up with egg on their faces.
Sinema is balking at including a provision in the bill that would end carried interest—a gimmick hedge fund managers use to lower their tax rates. In the grand scheme of things, it only brings in $14 billion in revenue over ten years. But Sinema’opposition to including it in the bill could blow up the entire reconciliation process and send the Democrats back to square one.
Sinema is reluctant to publicly endorse the bill in part because it has not been OK’d by the chamber’s nonpartisan parliamentarian and may still change. After hearing from both Republicans and Democrats alike, the Senate’s rules referee will ultimately weigh in on whether provisions of the bill can enjoy protections from a GOP filibuster that are afforded by this year’s budget process.
And the bill is still evolving behind the scenes. Schumer indicated Democrats will try to add legislation addressing sky-high insulin costs. And in an interview, Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said his party will attempt to attach his legislation to cap insulin costs at $35.
Republicans believe that Warnock’s insulin cap violates the Byrd Rule for inclusion in reconciliation. And there may be other provisions that would have to be left behind if Democrats want to bring the bill to the floor for a vote after the Senate parliamentarian is finished with it.
The real danger for Democrats is that Sinema will end up voting for a Republican amendment that would end up in the final legislation, making it unpalatable for some Senators on the left.
Will Sinema really derail the bill and upend her party’s slim hopes in November?
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) believes Sinema will stick to her moderate principles.
“I always have faith in her. I don’t know how it will come out,” he said. “I have great faith she’s going to do what she feels is right. She’s more convicted than she is transactional.”
He predicted the climate and tax provisions in the bill will become a major issue in the midterm elections if they are seen as fueling inflation or dampening corporate investment.
Politicians can say they’re not going to bow to pressure no matter what—and then the “what” happens. In this case, Sinema may be a “moderate” Democrat, but she’s still got that “D” after her name. She’s more likely than not to stick with her party on this partisan bill.
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