The New York Times has the story of Russian peace overtures made to the United States over the last year. This is after the White House had been saying that Putin didn't want peace and had rebuffed U.S. overtures to stop the fighting.
Granted, Putin would have insisted on keeping the territory the Russian army conquered. But that is a demand they will always insist on before any ceasefire deal can be reached.
“They say, ‘We are ready to have negotiations on a ceasefire,’” said one senior international official who met with top Russian officials this fall. “They want to stay where they are on the battlefield.”
There is no evidence that Ukraine’s leaders, who have pledged to retake all their territory, will accept such a deal. Some American officials say it could be a familiar Kremlin attempt at misdirection and does not reflect genuine willingness by Mr. Putin to compromise. The former Russian officials add that Mr. Putin could well change his mind again if Russian forces gain momentum.
In the past 16 months, Mr. Putin swallowed multiple humiliations — embarrassing retreats, a once-friendly warlord’s mutiny — before he arrived at his current state of relaxed confidence. All along, he waged a war that has killed or maimed hundreds of thousands while exhibiting contradictions that have become hallmarks of his rule.
Putin also has a Machiavellian mind when it comes to international diplomacy. This is the big reason no one trusts him. He may be using peace overtures to divide the U.S. and Ukraine, sowing discord among allies. President Zelesnkyy has vowed to recover every square inch of Ukraine's territory before ending the fighting. Is that a reasonable war aim? Is it even militarily possible?
Given the stakes, wouldn't it make sense to listen to what his potential terms might be?
“He really is willing to stop at the current positions,” one of the former senior Russian officials told The New York Times, relaying a message he said the Kremlin was quietly sending. The former official added, “he’s not willing to retreat one meter.”
Could Ukraine live with this "land for peace" scenario? Ukraine's military allies see the writing on the wall and will eventually force the Ukrainian government to the table. And negotiations will start with Russia keeping the territory they've conquered.
Mr. Putin, the current and former officials said, sees a confluence of factors creating an opportune moment for a deal: a battlefield that seems stuck in a stalemate, the fallout over Ukraine’s disappointing offensive, its flagging support in the West, and, since October, the distraction of the war in Gaza. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity, like others interviewed for this article, because of the sensitive nature of the back-channel overtures.
It's not so much "rewarding" Putin for his aggression as it is recognizing the reality of the map. The map shows Russia in an unassailable position in much of eastern Ukraine with strong militia forces augmented by some of Russia's best troops. Ukraine would need an army twice its current size to have a chance.
A similar situation confronts Kyiv in Crimea. Russia has had almost a decade to build up its defenses and Moscow will never give up the peninsula voluntarily.
The other side of the coin finds Zelenskyy talking tough but with little basis for optimism.
“Putin is, indeed, ready for talks, and he has said so,” Mr. Peskov said. “Russia continues to be ready, but exclusively for the achievement of its own goals.”
Ukraine has been rallying support for its own peace formula, which requires Moscow to surrender all captured Ukrainian territory and pay damages. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that he saw no sign that Russia wanted to negotiate.
Zelenskyy's delusional "terms" are what we've come to expect from Kyiv. And Biden doesn't seem to be eager to throw cold water on the Ukrainian president's fantasies and get him to face facts.
He may be forced to knock some sense into Zelenskyy's head. Ukraine's military allies are seeing the same stalemate that Washington sees and wonders why they should continue funding the war at current levels.
Any peace deal won't satisfy both sides. That's why they're called "negotiations." But with Russia willing to at least talk about a ceasefire in place, wouldn't it be to America's advantage to get Kyiv to sit down and hear what Russia has to say?
