Iran is abandoning its Syrian ally following rapid gains made by Islamist rebel forces, who are now closing in on the capital Damascus.
“Iran is starting to evacuate its forces and military personnel because we cannot fight as an advisory and support force if Syria’s army itself does not want to fight,” a prominent advisor to the Iranian regime, Mehdi Rahmati, told the New York Times.
“The bottom line,” he said, “is that Iran has realized that it cannot manage the situation in Syria right now with any military operation and this option is off the table.”
The unspoken reason Iran is leaving Syria is that Israel smashed Iran's proxy Hezbollah, fatally weakening its ability to carry out operations outside of Lebanon.
Significantly, Iran is pulling out its powerful Quds Force and other Revolutionary Guards units. They see the writing on the wall, and know that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is doomed.
Assad still has his Russian ally, but President Vladimir Putin is extremely unlikely to send ground forces to Syria while he's heavily engaged in Ukraine. The Russian Air Force can help, but Assad needs boots on the ground to fight the Islamists.
Alongside Russia, Iran has been the Syrian government’s most powerful supporter, sending advisers and commanders to bases and the front lines and backing militias.
It also deployed tens of thousands of volunteer fighters, including Iranians, Afghans and Pakistani Shias, to defend the government and to retake territory from the Islamic State terrorist group at the height of Syria’s civil war. Some of Iran’s forces, like the Afghan Fatemiyoun brigade, had remained in Syria at military bases operated by Iran; on Friday, they were also being transferred to Damascus and Latakia, an Assad government stronghold, the Iranian officials said. A video posted on accounts affiliated with the Guards showed the Fatemiyoun in uniform taking refuge at the shrine of Seyed Zainab near Damascus.
Abandoned by Iran, and with Russia unable to help, Assad's own poorly led and disorganized army won't be able to stem the tide. The Syrian army abandoned the second-largest city, Aleppo, while barely firing a shot. Now the Islamist army is rolling south, headed for Damascus.
The rebels have taken Hama and are close to succeeding in taking Homs. The fight for Damascus is already underway, as the rebels have taken Jaramana, a Damascus suburb.
The primary rebel force belongs to the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda.
In a separate statement, it said that its forces in Daraa had carried out a “repositioning,” and “established a strong and cohesive defensive and security perimeter in that direction.”
If confirmed, the capture of Daraa and advance on the capital would mark the latest development of a sweeping campaign that has dramatically shifted the balance of power in Syria.
In less than two weeks, insurgents led by HTS have captured of Aleppo in the north, as well as the central city of Hama, where government forces were forced out Thursday.
Since its break with al-Qaeda, HTS has been more concerned with establishing a radical Islamist state in Syria, rather than a caliphate, as ISIS tried to do. This probably worries Israel, which could tolerate a weak Assad on its border, but bloodthirsty, Israel-hating Islamists are another story.
Israel has defeated Iran. Tehran's proxies are severely weakened and in retreat across the board. The networks that supplied those proxies have been severely damaged or destroyed.
It's up to the rest of the world to keep the pressure on by enforcing the sanctions and keeping Iran isolated and weak. Eventually, like the Shah in 1979, the people will rise up and throw the mullahs on the ash heap of history.
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