“Not always, but most of the time, people act in their own self-interest.”
The above quote is our passport through the space-time continuum — the DeLorean we’ll drive to steal a sneak-peak at Election Day 2028, as we play Carnac the Magnificent. And it works… about 75% of the time.
Alas, the future is stubbornly indifferent to the plans of today. People are mostly predictable, but black swan events still happen. Every now and then, a researcher in Wuhan will be dissecting bats and forget to wash her hands. Or a political speech in Butler, Penn. will be disrupted with gunshots. Life is crazy.
It’ll never be fully predictable.
There’s a Yiddish saying, “Der mentsch tracht un gott lacht”: “Man plans, and God laughs.”
So I’m not guaranteeing that this will happen. It’s entirely possible that life will throw us another Koufax-style curveball, flipping the future on its side. And it’s also possible that we’re misreading the participant: Perhaps this Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez person is perfectly content where she is — in a “safe space” Democratic district that’ll rubber-stamp her reelection bids — allowing her to play “House” for the next 30 or 40 years. (It’s a little girl’s dream come true!)
But I don’t think so.
Most of the time, when someone runs for congress — and wins! — while still in his or her twenties, it’s a helluva lot more likely they’re more ambitious than your average bear. There’s an old joke in D.C.: Every politician that’s ever been elected dogcatcher has a necktie in his closet that he’s planning on wearing to his presidential inauguration.
And this takes us to AOC.
This week, pollster and/or prognosticator Nate Silver made headlines by dubbing AOC the frontrunner for the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nomination.
Of course, we predicted the same thing a month ago. And we stood by it — repeatedly, too.
Here’s how she wins:
Her first step is to inherit the Bernie Sanders national network of socialist activists. Vermont’s most famous octogenarian ran for president twice; in the process, he built a coast-to-coast database. The DNC doesn’t own it; it belongs to Sanders.
He dedicated himself to socialism, and his reward — his ultimate legacy — is being a kingmaker.
(Or, in this case, a queenmaker.)
AOC doesn’t care what conservatives or moderates think. Not yet. We’re immaterial in the short-term.
Her greatest danger is another Democrat running to her left.
Forget about the right or middle. She can’t let anyone else out-liberal her! In the 2028 Democratic primaries, the candidate that’s perceived as being the “champion” of leftists will have the highest basement.
Not the highest ceiling, because her ability to attract non-liberals is still an open question. Candidates like Bill Clinton were high-ceiling: there was a logical path for good ol’ Billy Jefferson from Arkansas to win over slews of independents.
AOC’s path is more muddled.
But her basement is HUGE! (Which sounds like a double entendre, but I don’t mean it that way.) In a crowded field of seven-plus wannabes, her basement alone could give her a plurality.
And she wouldn’t have to run the tables for very long.
In the past, the DNC would rally its resources behind its “preferred” candidate, either by pressuring the dead weight to dropout, or through chicanery with its weirdly corrupt system of superdelegates. It’s how Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden cleared out the field.
Under the old system, if an undesirable candidate such as an AOC got too damn close to the sun, the DNC would conspire and consolidate. They’d do “Hollywood accounting” with the delegate count. They’d narrow the voters’ options. And eventually, they’d find a way to elevate the establishment’s choice. (To the loud, boisterous cheers of the mainstream media, of course.)
It’s not that way anymore. The moderate wing of the DNC has been discredited and destroyed; they no longer exist. Now, David Hogg, the vice chair of the DNC, is spending $20 million to end the careers of incumbent DEMOCRATS.
“Our base is craving dramatic change,” Hogg said. “We need to show our base we’re here to fight for them. We need to show there are younger faces stepping up.” [emphasis added]
The DNC won’t be coming to rescue the moderate wing anymore. The opposite is true: they’re coming to kill it.
Read between the lines: Who is the young face stepping up? For whom is Hogg greasing the wheel?
Of all the candidates on the left side of the aisle, AOC’s path to the nomination is the easiest. It’s not even 2026 yet, and her path has already been cleared.
Mostly, I mean.
Robert Burns probably didn’t know he was channeling a Yiddish saying when he wrote, “The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry.” So, you never know… until you do.
Hope springs eternal. Happy Easter.
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