"Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum," Roman general Publius Flavius Vegetius Renatus wrote some 16 centuries ago — if you want peace, prepare for war. Sometimes, if you want peace, you've got to keep blowing up the bad guys until the survivors cry uncle or you run out of bad guys. The question for Israel now is how far up the bad guys' food chain do they want to go?
Israel's systematic disassembly of Hezbollah "marks a break in the geopolitical status quo," the Washington Post noted over the weekend, that "could either deepen the region’s crisis or indicate the beginning of its end."
"Hezbollah’s entire organization is tottering, confused, and frightened by Israeli intelligence’s evidently thorough penetration of its ranks," the WaPo editors continued.
How chaotic is the situation for the Islamists, really? Iranian cleric, Mostafa Karami, who regularly serves as a mouthpiece for the mullahs' regime, said on Iranian state television this weekend, "Considering the Zionists' history of subjugating genies, they carry out many of their missions through this means, and demons are their secret army."
Nasrallah was killed by Jewish genies? OK, boss.
Tehran is torn over how to respond. The New York Times reported on Sunday that "fissures have opened within the Iranian government over how to respond to [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah’s killing, with conservatives arguing for a forceful response and the moderates, led by Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, calling for restraint... state television, run by [his opponent in the election] Jalili’s affiliates, called for Iran to strike Israel, in open defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei’s caution. "
Jared Kushner — one of the two peacemakers behind the Trump administration's historic Abraham Accords — posted a thoughtful essay to X on Saturday urging Israel to "finish the job." He explained that "The reason why [Iran's] nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, despite weak air defense systems, is because Hezbollah has been a loaded gun pointed at Israel."
"Anyone who has been calling for a ceasefire in the North is wrong. There is no going back for Israel. They cannot afford now to not finish the job and completely dismantle the arsenal that has been aimed at them. They will never get another chance."
One way to read that is Kushner wants Israel to finish off Hezbollah. The other is that Kushner is strongly hinting that Israel needs to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, too.
A Wall Street Journal story Sunday quoted Johns Hopkins professor and former State Department advisor Vali Nasr saying, "Iran is not ready [for war with Israel] right now because it’s not the right time. But there will be a right time."
When your enemy is not yet ready for war but you are, is there ever a better time to strike?
You can be sure that's a debate that started (or perhaps re-started) in Jerusalem probably no later than Oct. 8. Hamas is holed up in northern Gaza. Hezbollah is leaderless, and Israel is systematically destroying their caches of weapons and rockets. The U.S. is effectively without a president, creating a world leadership vacuum that Jerusalem has a limited time to exploit.
I'm deadly serious on that last point — who's in charge here anyway?
LEFT (YESTERDAY): Biden answers "no" when asked if he'll deploy more troops to the Middle East.
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) September 30, 2024
RIGHT (TODAY): The Pentagon announces they're deploying more troops to the Middle East.
Who is running the country? pic.twitter.com/GnhJq3v6qT
Nobody wanted a wider regional war, but that's exactly what the Biden-Harris administration has brought us. Maybe the way to narrow it back down is for Israel to widen the fighting even further and take it up to the top of the food chain to Hezbollah's masters in Tehran.
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