Time for a 3rd Party if Jeb Bush Gets the Nomination?

The only reason why we’re talking about Jeb for 2016 is because of his last name. If he was Jeb Jones then nobody would be considering him for president.

Earlier today on AM870 the Morning Answer, Ben Shapiro, Elisha Krauss, and Brian Whitman had a thoughtful discussion about the potential GOP nominees. I agreed with Ben’s take on what a third candidate in the Mitt Romney, John McCain, Fox News corporatist establishment mold had the potential to inspire:

"If Jeb Bush is the nominee the Republican Party is done." – @BenShapiro just now on AM870. Tune in here LIVE: http://t.co/Tp8QKTyvbs #tcot

— David M. Swindle (@DaveSwindle) January 13, 2015

Larry Schweikart, co-author of A Patriot’s History of the United States, agreed:

@DaveSwindle @benshapiro Yep. A third party is coming and Bush would ensure it arrives now.

— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) January 13, 2015

Strategist Brian Cragin thought the 3rd party brainstorming should potentially start immediately:

@LarrySchweikart @instapundit @DaveSwindle @benshapiro What do you want to call it? Let the contest begin!

— big brain (@icantbrain) January 13, 2015

I disagreed and a debate ensued:

https://twitter.com/DaveSwindle/status/555037688890269697

.@briancragin @LarrySchweikart @instapundit @benshapiro it is easier/better for Tea Party to take over GOP rather than start a 3rd party.

— David M. Swindle (@DaveSwindle) January 13, 2015

@DaveSwindle I just googled Whigs & Republicans, educational @LarrySchweikart @instapundit @benshapiro

— big brain (@icantbrain) January 13, 2015

@DaveSwindle @LarrySchweikart @instapundit @benshapiro Yes, as in, leaving one party to form another. Tea party can not over take GOP.

— big brain (@icantbrain) January 13, 2015

https://twitter.com/DaveSwindle/status/555041749416939520

@briancragin @LarrySchweikart @instapundit @benshapiro how to win both primaries & general isn't the same as it was in 1980.

— David M. Swindle (@DaveSwindle) January 13, 2015

.@briancragin @LarrySchweikart @instapundit @benshapiro I think a Pence-Bolton ticket could win both primary and general.

— David M. Swindle (@DaveSwindle) January 13, 2015

The big difference between winning both primaries and general elections now and in 1980 can be summarized in one acronym: CATALIST. The old school strategy of selecting a “moderate” who can “woo independents and undecidededs” is obsolete. Using the technology of today it is much, much cheaper to specifically target ideologically-charged voters either on the Right or the Left or of any specific interest group, rather than to try to persuade those in “the middle” who are confused and don’t really know what they believe.

Political wars are won the same way as military wars: when one side develops a superior technological weapon and then blows away the other side with it. That’s what happened in the 2012 election with CATALIST and will happen again in 2016 if Republicans don’t begin to shed their assumptions about what it really takes to win the presidency in the 21st century.

*****

image illustration via shutterstock / Nagel Photography