After years of wandering in Europe's political wilderness, Geert Wilders and his Party For Freedom (PVV) have reached the pinnacle of political power in the Netherlands.
But despite winning the most number of seats, Wilders' PVV party may not get to name him as prime minister. There's a lot of controversy surrounding him and without some assurances that he'll nix the anti-Muslim rhetoric, he may not be acceptable to all his potential coalition partners.
His first task is to form a coalition government and he's already received a setback as the party of outgoing prime minister Mark Rutte and his Freedom and Democracy Party refused to join a coalition with the PVV in control. Rutte and some other center-right parties are suspicious of Wilder's caustic rhetoric toward Muslims and his anti-EU beliefs.
PVV won 37 seats in the 150-seat lower house while Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy won 24 seats, 10 fewer than in the previous election. It would have been easier if Rutte had agreed to join Wilders' government but PVV shouldn't have too much trouble fashioning a parliamentary majority.
Wilders appointed Senator Gom van Strien to look into possible coalitions, which must add up to 76 seats to govern. But the question facing Wilders is whether he'll have to lower the temperature of his anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim rhetoric.
A good yardstick to compare Wilders' situation to is Italy's right-wing prime minister Giorgia Meloni. She also entered office known for nationalist rhetoric and anti-immigrant policies. As Catherine de Vries points out in The Conversation, it's one thing to kibbitz from the sidelines when you're out of power and quite another thing to have the responsibility of governance.
Like Wilders, Meloni was seen as a political outsider and has long put immigration at the heart of political debate. But since coming to power, her strong anti-immigration rhetoric has had to be simmered down. She was quickly confronted with calls from the business community to address Italy’s labour shortage, which meant granting permits for migrant workers.
In my book Political Entrepreneurs, co-authored with Sara Hobolt from the London School of Economics, we show that governing changes political parties. It is relatively easy to gripe from the sidelines but in government, parties bear responsibility for policy. They have to make decisions, weigh up interests – and can only spend money once. Meloni, like the leaders of so many other populist parties, quickly lost her sharp edge once she became the person in charge.
In an election night speech, Wilders pledged not to promote any policies that would violate the Dutch Constitution. That Constitution specifically outlaws discrimination “on grounds of religion, belief, political opinion, race, gender, disability, [or] sexual orientation." Wilders has said in the past that the Netherlands is not a Muslim country. "We want less Islam in the Netherlands," says the PVV platform.
But despite the fiery rhetoric, Wilders still got support from some Muslims.
"I'm from Turkish descent and a Muslim. Yet, I voted for Geert Wilders," said one Venlo-born man.
"Why? Because we are all poor and we think he can make a change. All this talk about closing mosques is just politics," said the 41-year-old unemployed man.
Wilders also received support from the anti-EU votes and especially, the votes of Dutch citizens who don't want to support Ukraine anymore.
His foreign policy also has raised concern among the Netherlands’ allies, Dutch caretaker Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said Friday.
Wilders’ election program says “we will not send our money and defense equipment such as F-16s to Ukraine.”
“I hope and expect that the support will remain,” Ollongren told reporters in The Hague. She said she had received concerned calls about the issue since the election.
The caretaker administration led by Rutte will remain in office until a new coalition is formed.
Wilders and his party may want to stop Ukraine aid but the Netherlands is a loyal member of NATO and it will be hard for the Dutch to back off supporting Kyiv when Germany, the UK, and most other NATO countries are sending aid.
If Wilders can convince enough potential coalition partners that he'll tone down the anti-Islam, anti-immigrant rhetoric, he still may end up as prime minister. But that's a long shot at this point and Wilders knows that better than anyone.
