"Keep Texas, Texas" is Sen. Ted Cruz's re-election slogan. The two-term Republican won his first re-election race in 2018 against Democratic heartthrob Beto O'Rourke by just 3%, and his 2024 race appears to be coming down to the wire again.
Cruz is running behind Donald Trump in Texas, which is never good for down-ballot candidates. The 53-year-old Cruz is facing Rep. Colin Allred, a former NFL player and civil rights attorney. Allred has spent a ton of money on introducing himself to voters, defining himself as a "moderate centrist" and has steered clear of Kamala Harris and other national Democrats. It appears to be working.
Allred's biggest problem is that there doesn't appear to be too many crossover Republican voters. Austin, Texas-based Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak asks, “Who are these voters who are Trump-Allred voters?” he asked. “What does that person even look like?”
Indeed, the Democratic Party in Texas has benefitted from the state's changing demographics. Texas is becoming more urban, younger, and browner. And Cruz has yet to crack 50% approval. He's trying to rebrand himself as more bipartisan by touting his support for re-authorizing the FAA and other bills he's passed. But for a politician who built a reputation as a partisan warrior, “He’s trying to resaddle his horse while he’s riding it,” said University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus.
Cruz’s effort to burnish a more bipartisan brand is a tall order for a senator long known for right-wing flame-throwing and legislative obstruction. During the last two-year Congress, Cruz was the fourth-most-partisan member of the Senate, according to the Lugar Center, a nonprofit that compiles data on how often officials work across parties.
Most often, Cruz serves up red meat for his base. As he recently rallied supporters at a Tex-Mex restaurant in the suburbs north of Dallas, his re-election pitch could have been confused for a stand-up comedy routine. The crowd of nearly 800 roared as the two-term Republican used Democrats as his punchlines in jabs about inflation and border security and transgender issues. After the stop, the fourth on a 53-stop bus tour, they would line up to sign their names on a bus reading “Keep Texas, Texas.”
Cruz has been stressing transgender issues, attacking transgender athletes, drag shows on military bases, and “boys in girls bathrooms.” But it's border issues that play in Texas, and Cruz regularly brings the house down when talking about Texas being under siege because of Democratic policies.
But his opponent is no open-border radical. Allred has been at odds with Biden and Harris about their lax border policies and hasn't been shy about telling Texas voters that.
This hasn't stopped Criuz from referring to Allred as an open-border radical.
Allred has been running what might be considered the opposite of an O’Rourke campaign. He has focused on television advertisements over rallies, has been less prominent in the media and made many of his in-person events small gatherings centered on professional or industry groups. The soft-spoken former professional football player elicits little excitement and mostly talks about his reputation as a centrist. At times, some fellow Democrats have questioned whether he is trying hard enough.
Colin Allred is not the Democrat who will defeat Ted Cruz. While Democrats may have gained some voters in some larger cities and suburbs, a Democrat is going to have to convince voters in Amarillo, Lubbock, Odessa, and a dozen other mid-sized Texas cities to vote Democratic when they regularly vote 60-80% Republican.
A Democrat hasn't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Expect that trend to continue, although Cruz will get a scare before it's over.
