“Another prophet of disaster who says this ship is lost. Another prophet of disaster leaving you to count the cost.” —Iron Maiden, “Die with Your Boots On”
We’re entering the closing quarter of the 2024 presidential election. Emotions are whirling; anxiety is growing; everyone’s on pins and needles. We’re famished for clarity — for words of wisdom — searching for a way to find meaning in it all.
The truth is, nobody really knows who’s “winning” right now. (And besides, “winning” an election before Election Day is kind of like “winning” the Super Bowl on the preceding Saturday: It doesn’t really mean anything.) There are simply too many moving parts. Because of deaths, immigration (illegal and otherwise), COVID-related rule-changes, state-to-state migration, and more, there isn’t anyone alive who can legitimately tell you who’s ahead and who’s behind.
But that won’t stop ‘em from trying.
There’s no shortage of “experts” who’ll tell you whatever you want to hear. Whether you’re on the Left or the Right, you can find a pundit who’ll tell you everything’s awesome. Since the dawn of time, there’s always been great social equity in claiming insights everyone else lacks, whether it's prophecy, financial knowledge, political solutions, or divine knowledge.
But eventually, the chickens come home to roost.
It happened in 2012. If you remember, Dick Morris and Karl Rove were all over FOX News in the run-up to the election, guaranteeing that Mitt Romney was cruising to victory. But their logic was absurd. (In fact, I was so annoyed by ‘em, I wrote an essay to a FOX News producer-buddy. He forwarded it to the FOX News opinion editor, and they actually published it as a two-parter — on the condition that I excised my criticisms of Rove and Morris, of course.)
I believe the day after Mitt Romney lost marked Morris's last appearance on FOX News (Rove is still there).
“Taunting us with visions, afflicting us with fear. Predicting was for millions, in the hope that one appears.” —Iron Maiden, “Die with Your Boots On”
I knew Rove and Morris were wrong because they were speaking assuredly about outcomes that were unknowable. It’s not that I’m smarter; it’s that I’m smart enough to know what I’m dumb at. Sometimes, the right answer is, “I don’t know.”
Even if you really, really, REALLY wish you knew.
So please trust me: We do not know if Donald Trump is winning.
If you’re pro-MAGA, there are ample reasons for optimism: When you track how Trump polled in various states against Clinton and Biden, we can compare it with the eventual outcomes. By many metrics, Trump is performing better in 2024 than he did in 2016 or 2020. If everything else is exactly the same, it would seem to indicate that Trump’s trajectory is exactly where it needs to be.
But this is a different country now.
In 2016, Elon Musk was still a liberal hero, Dick and Liz Cheney were rock-solid conservatives, and everyone wanted to go to a Puff Daddy party. Artificial intelligence existed, but it couldn’t hold a conversation with you. A lot has changed since then: The oldest generation of Americans — including members of the Greatest Generation — were replaced by Zoomers. COVID-fueled migrations have changed the voting margins in battleground states. Absentee and/or remote voting was the exception, not the rule. There wasn’t a hot war in Europe; there wasn’t runaway inflation; our priorities were dramatically different.
But we keep demanding to know the future — now, today. We keep searching for a modern-day Michel de Nostradamus to reveal what’s to come. And speaking of Nostradamus:
“‘Thirteen: The Beast is rising!’ the Frenchman did surmise. Through earthquakes and starvation, the Warlord will arise.” —Iron Maiden, “Die with Your Boots On”
The most honest answer any pundit can give you is this: Certain metrics favor Trump, while others lean toward Harris. An intelligent, fair-minded pollster could make a credible argument either way, and it wouldn’t be malpractice. But there are too many unknowns. (Among the biggest unknowns is how motivated Democratic voters will be to support a candidate they don’t know very well.)
Political polling is kind of like forecasting the path of a hurricane weeks in advance: You know what’s happened in the past, and you can make certain extrapolations, but more often than not, that hurricane is gonna do something surprising. Might not be right away. Could be days from now. But it almost never follows the predicted path in its entirety.
And just one small, tiny wobble can change the entire trajectory.
“Terror, death, destruction pour from the Eastern sands. But the truth of all predictions is always in your hands.” —Iron Maiden, “Die with Your Boots On”
If you predict Trump will win in 2024, there’s still time to make your prophecy come true. It’s within your grasp. Trump absolutely CAN win. And honestly, I think he will.
We’re just gonna have to work for it.
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